Well, we made it. We’re at the Ghost Island merge. As much fun as the first half of the season has been, now the real game begins. Let’s take a look at where the game could be headed moving forward. If you’ve been following our fantasy game, I included a fantasy-centric post-merge preview in the Episode 7 scoring recap, which can be found here.
Through seven episodes, we’re left with the following castaways:
(Name, original tribe, 1st swap, 2nd swap)
Angela (Naviti, Naviti, Malolo)
Chelsea (Naviti, Malolo, Naviti)
Chris (Naviti, Naviti, Yanuya)
Des (Naviti, Malolo, Malolo)
Domenick (Naviti, Naviti, Naviti)
Donathan (Malolo,Naviti, Naviti)
Jenna (Malolo, Malolo, Yanuya)
Kellyn (Naviti, Malolo, Malolo)
Laurel (Malolo, Naviti, Yanuya)
Libby (Malolo, Naviti, Naviti)
Michael (Malolo, Malolo, Malolo)
Sebastian (Naviti, Malolo, Yanuya)
Wendell (Naviti, Naviti, Yanuya)
That leaves us with eight original Navitis and 5 original Malolos. With the two pre-merge swaps, it will be interesting to see how strong these original tribe lines remain. If they’re looking for an easy vote in the first Tribal or two after the merge, the original Navitis could band together. But with all the mixing, it could be hard to count on that. Staying “Naviti Strong” has been mentioned a number of times, but the first vote could, and likely will, show how true or not that ideology is.
The first preview for this week’s episode seemingly teased a Chris-Dom showdown. Dom should be safe, as he has both a Hidden Immunity Idol and the Legacy Advantage, which can be used this week as there are 13 players left. Now could he get played and be voted out holding both? Sure, anything is possible. But Dom has proven himself to be savvy player. If he ends up feeling any sort of concern, he’ll use the idol or advantage. Chris could be a candidate for the merge boot, but I would hope the producers wouldn’t telegraph it so much if that was the case. So if not either of those two, who would that leave for the merge boot?
Wendell could certainly be a target. He’s proven himself in challenges, he has a strong social game and there’s no reason to think he won’t also be strong strategically. He could easily use those social and strategic skills to get the target off his back if it comes to that. But he also has an idol, and based on what he’s shown so far, I don’t think he would hesitate to use it if he felt there was a chance he was the target. Michael finds himself in nearly the exact same position as Wendell, with being a complete threat and in the possession of an idol.
I think Kellyn should be worried here. She’s shown her cards in the challenges. When it comes to puzzles, she’s the best of the remaining castaways. That’s someone you might want to take out the first chance you get. Sebastian could also be targeted here, as a perceived challenge threat. But he hasn’t really done much in terms of strategic gameplay, so the others may not feel too threatened by him, not this early at least.
After that there’s Angela and Chelsea, the two obvious goat contenders at this point. They’re not threats to win, but if you’re not the one bringing them to the end, you have less incentive to want to keep them in the game. But I would say Kellyn or Michael would be the two most likely targets. And if Michael is the vote and he plays his idol? Then it’s anyone’s guess as to who would be the unlucky loser. Again, it could go back to tribal lines on who their back up is in case Michael plays an idol, or who Michael targets in the first vote.
So that’s just the first boot, but who can actually win from this group? I’d say the remaining players could be separated into three tiers: Legitimate Threats, Possibly if Things Break Their Way, and No Chance.
Legitimate Threats: Domenick, Kellyn, Michael, Wendell
Logically, Ghost Island’s winner should come from this group. They’ve been the strongest, most well-rounded players from the beginning. But if everyone else sees them that way, that could all be targets at every tribal going forward. Luckily for them, they should all have a good chance in most, if not all, immunity challenges. And Dom, Michael, and Wendell each have an Immunity Idol, with Dom also holding the Legacy Advantage. It could be very difficult to get all four out. If only one of these four makes it to the end, I don’t see how they don’t win the game. Fingers crossed for at least two out of this group lasting until Day 39 to give us a tight, dramatic Final Tribal and vote. And with three out of the four (Dom, Kellyn, Wendell) being original Navitis, could we see a power alliance form early on?
Possibly if Things Break Their Way: Chris, Des, Donathan, Laurel, Libby, Sebastian
Chris’s lack of social awareness is going to hold him back from making true connections. Des, Laurel, and Libby are all pretty similar. They’re smart and personable and have shown flashes of strategic chops. If they can put it all together, they could go by almost unnoticed as the focus stays on the established threats. Donathan will struggle to win even one challenge and likely won’t be super strong strategically. But he’s so far been so well liked that if he does get himself to the Final Tribal, he just might win this thing. Sebastian probably has the toughest route of this group. But he could easily go on a challenge run and find himself in the Final Three. Like Donathan, he’s sociable and well liked that if he were to make it against two weaker players, he could become a surprise winner. And if the for top tier players all get taken out early, it will be very interesting to see who takes control of the game.
No Chance: Angela, Chelsea, Jenna
This should come as no surprise. None of these three have done anything to put themselves in a strong position to win. Any one of them could get pulled to the end as a goat, but it would have to be a Final Three of this group for one of them to win this season.
So that’s it for the post-merge preview. Can’t wait to watch and see how completely wrong I end up being. But it should be a fun ride the rest of the way!
Tags: Survivor, Survivor 36, Survivor Ghost Island
