Well folks, it’s that time again. The Oscars are right around the corner, so let’s take a little gander at what’s to come on Hollywood’s biggest night. As usual, I’ve got predictions, my personal picks, and of course some gambling tidbits. The gambling part is the most fun piece of this for me.
Quick, simplified primer for those who may not be familiar with betting odds (feel free to skip this paragraph). A negative value means that result is predicted to win. The bigger the number, the heavier the favorite. Conversely, a positive value means that result is not expected to win. The bigger the number, the less likely it is to win. The numbers are based on values of $100. For a negative value (-200, for example), that is the amount you would have to bet to profit $100 (ex. bet $200, profit $100). On a positive value (+200), that’s the amount you would profit on a bet of $100 (ex. bet $100, profit $200).
The tricky thing about the Oscars is that there are so many lead-up awards that give us (and more importantly, the oddsmakers) a pretty good idea about who’s going to win many of the awards come Oscar night. However, there is more speculation here than in traditional sports betting, as the Oscars are all about human behavior (voting), and not an expected on-field or on-court performance. The precursors give us a general idea of how voting members will vote, but there are still a lot of moving parts.
By this point, just a week before the Oscars, many of the races seemingly have solidified. Of course, it’s foolish to assume every betting favorite is going to win, but how do you decide which perceived underdogs to put your money on? What I do each year is try to pinpoint some options early on once the nominations are announced. In the past few years, I made early bets on Everything Everywhere All At Once, CODA, and Parasite for Best Picture, which all paid off. But my early gamble on Austin Butler for Best Actor sadly went nowhere. But getting him at +450 when his odds closed at close to even was still incredible value.
And that’s what it comes down to: finding value. For my betting strategy I typically don’t bet any favorites shorter than -200. That might change for you, depending how much money you’re working with. But I don’t bet enough money for that kind of payoff to be worth it. I usually like to make a lot of smaller bets instead of going bigger on just a few categories.
And then I’m trying something new this year. Oppenheimer (13 nominations) and Poor Things (11) are the two most-nominated films this year. Oppenheimer seems poised to take home a handful of awards, and Poor Things also finds itself in contention in several categories. So what I did was bet those movies in some categories where they aren’t the favorite to win. This may just be a one year experiment, but if I hit one or two this time around, that could make my entire night.
Before getting into it, some quick notes on how the betting favorites fared last year. The winner’s odds are in parenthesis.
Favorites
Favorites prevailed in 15/19 categories I cover:
Picture (-1250) , Director (-1000), Lead Actor (-155), Lead Actress (-160), Supporting Actor (-4000), Supporting Actress (+120), Adapted Screenplay (-275), Original Screenplay (-140), Animated (-4000), International (-2000), Cinematography (-500), Editing (-250), Song (-450), Sound (-650), Visual Effects (no odds were posted at the time I published last year, but Avatar was clearly the heavy favorite).
Underdogs:
Costume Design (+200), Makeup and Hairstyling (+175), Production Design (+900), Score (+150)
In Costume, Makeup, and Score, the 2nd favorite won, with the 4th favorite taking home Production Design.
Obviously these don’t *guarantee* anything, but are really just something else to keep in mind when you’re deciding where to make your bets.
All odds listed below are from Bovada, and are current as of Sunday, March 3rd. Odds can change at any time.
Best Picture
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: The Holdovers, Poor Things
Honestly, though, is anything stopping the Oppenheimer train? While it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see either of the above win, I just can’t see it. Oppenheimer has all the usual pre-cursor nominations you look for, plus the coveted Editing nom at the Oscars. Both Poor Things and The Holdovers have several of those same nominations. But everything they have, so too does Oppenheimer.
Should win: The Holdovers (my #2 movie from 2023 vs Oppenheimer, my #4, so I will still be thrilled with Oppenheimer winning).
Betting: Best Picture is always a tempting category to throw a few bucks at a couple different underdogs. Being the only category whose winner is determined with ranked choice voting, the temptation to predict an upset can be strong. If you want to do something small with Poor Things and/or The Holdovers, I won’t fight you on it. I placed my bet on The Holdovers back in October, but had I waited until now, I might have just left this category alone altogether.
My bet: The Holdovers +2500
Best Director
Will win: Christopher Nolan
Could win: N/A
Should win: Christopher Nolan
Betting: Don’t waste your money here. You don’t get any ROI betting Nolan, and you’re literally throwing money away betting anyone else.
My bet: None
Lead Actor
Will win: Cillian Murphy
Could win: Paul Giamatti
Should win: Cillian Murphy
Betting: Should be a skip. But if you want some history to back up a bet somewhere else, the Lead Actor winner has not come from the Best Picture winner since The Artist and Jean Dujardin in 2012. It happened the year prior as well (The King’s Speech and Colin Firth). Then you need to go back to 2001 (Gladiator and Russell Crowe). So historical precedence is on the side of an upset. But all the momentum is behind Murphy. If Giamatti is to pull off the upset, you’d think he would have won somewhere else in the major precursors. If you still want to throw a small amount on him, I can see it. Just don’t get your hopes up.
My bet: Paul Giamatti +225 (like Best Picture, I likely would have left this category alone had I waited)
Lead Actress
Will win: Lily Gladstone. It almost seemed like Emma Stone was going to run away with this one, but Gladstone’s SAG win made this a race again.
Could win: Emma Stone
Should win: Lily Gladstone
Betting: Gladstone has great odds for a favorite, but that also means she’s far from a sure thing. Just bet whoever you predict to win between her and Stone. If you’re looking for a true dark horse candidate somewhere, Sandra Hüller might be it. It’s a little much for me, but it’s probably the best option for a long shot that might actually happen.
My bet: Lily Gladstone +165
Supporting Actor
Will win: Robert Downey Jr
Could win: N/A
Should win: Robert Downey Jr
Betting: Skip; this has been locked for months now.
My bet: None
Supporting Actress
Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Could win: N/A
Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Betting: Skip; like Downey Jr, Randolph has had this locked up for some time.
My bet: None
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: American Fiction
Could win: Oppenheimer, Barbie
Should win: American Fiction
Betting: American Fiction has decent enough odds for a favorite. Oppenheimer is still right there. And we can’t count out Barbie. The screenplay categories are often seen as a sort of consolation prize for someone who was also nominated for Picture and/or Director, but isn’t seen as likely to win. Gerwig wasn’t nominated for Director, but the general line of thinking could maybe still apply.
The other interesting piece with Barbie is that it’s been nominated for Original Screenplay in some of the major precursor awards. As a result, it hasn’t had to go head to head with American Fiction yet. We don’t have much of an idea how voters view these two when compared directly to each other. With all this, I think Barbie here is maybe the best value anywhere on the board.
Oppenheimer is tempting too. If you can get plus odds in a category it absolutely still can win, it’s hard to pass that up.
If you’re not going to bet American Fiction, I might suggest betting both Oppenheimer and Barbie. If it’s not Fiction, it’s going to be one of those two, and the odds are favorable enough that you’ll still profit even having exposure to both.
My bet: Barbie +190, but I wish I had waited. I still would have bet it at these odds.
Original Screenplay
Will win: Anatomy of a Fall
Could win: The Holdovers
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall
Betting: Anatomy of a Fall is right on the border of where I’m personally comfortable betting favorites. The Holdovers is for sure still in this, so that’s where I’d put my money if the Anatomy odds are a little short for your liking.
My bet: The Holdovers +125
Animated Feature
Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Could win: The Boy and the Heron
Should win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Betting: Spider-Verse won the PGA and ANNIE awards. The PGA animation winner has matched Oscar for 8 years in a row, with the ANNIE winner matching 7 of the last 10. But The Boy and the Heron won at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes, and it’s Hayao Miyazaki. As of this writing, the the ACE editing awards are still to come, and the Animation winner has also matched Oscar 8 years in a row. So it certainly feels like Spider-Verse, but you can’t count of Heron. Either makes a fine bet.
My bet: The Boy and the Heron +110
International Feature
Will win: The Zone of Interest
Could win: N/A
Should win: I’ve only seen Zone and Snow, so I can’t really say here.
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Cinematography
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: N/A
Should win: Oppenheimer
Betting: Skip, even though…
My bet: Poor Things +1100. This is a fool’s bet. But this falls in line with my new strategy of betting the heavily nominated films. Probably won’t work out, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. It should be noted, though, that Poor Things odds are pretty great, considering Oppenheimer is at -1000.
Costume Design
Will win: Barbie
Could win: Poor Things
Should win: Barbie
Betting: Pretty simple here, bet your pick to win between Barbie and Poor Things.
My bet: Barbie -130; Oppenheimer +2000. Copy and paste what I did for Cinematography.
Film Editing
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Eh, feels pretty locked for Oppenheimer.
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall
Betting: This should probably be a skip, unless you want to follow my “Bet Oppenheimer and Poor Things anywhere you can” strategy.
My bet: Anatomy of a Fall +700. I just feel strongly that this should win, and I usually find one or two categories where I bet my personal pick, regardless of odds.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Poor Things
Could win: Maestro
Should win: Society of the Snow
Betting: Maestro has great odds for a favorite, and Poor Things has some good value too. If you feel strongly that Maestro will win, go that direction. If you’re less certain, that’s when you want to go Poor Things.
My bet: Poor Things +115
Production Design
Will win: Poor Things
Could win: Barbie, Oppenheimer
Should win: Barbie
Betting: Our one true coin flip, so I’d say bet your winner pick between Barbie and Poor Things. If you’re looking for a tiebreaker, Poor Things won against Barbie at the Art Directors Guild, and 8/10 Oscar winners have won at the ADG. And then again, we have Oppenheimer. it’s not like it’s completely out of it here. Oppenheimer also won at the ADG (it competed in Period Film, where the other two were in the Fantasy Film category).
My bet: Poor Things +155; Napoleon +2000 (a “what the heck” longshot)
Score
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: N/A
Should win: Oppenheimer
Betting: This is one category where even my “Bet the two most-nominated movies” strategy will not apply.
My bet: None
Song
Will win: “What Was I Made For?”
Could win: N/A, unfortunately. I’m just not a Billie Eilish fan, and I honestly don’t think this is a particularly good song. But it is what it is, so what can you do.
Should win: “I’m Just Ken”
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Sound
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: The Zone of Interest
Should win: The Zone of Interest
Betting: The Zone of Interest is making a late push and could legitimately take it. Like Editing, another spot where I’m betting a movie I feel strongly should win the category. The fact that it’s right there in contention is just a happy bonus. Oppenheimer is bettable here too, but again, for me at least, it’s right on the border.
My bet: The Zone of Interest +125
Visual Effects
Will win: Godzilla Minus One
Could win: This is a fun category, with three movies legitimately in contention: The Creator, Napoleon. And speaking of Napoleon…
It’s also tough to predict based on precursors. Poor Things won at the BAFTAs, but isn’t nominated here. It’s the same case with the Critics Choice, where Oppenheimer won. The Creator gets the slight edge for winning Outstanding Visual Effects at the Visual Effects Society Awards. But neither Godzilla nor Napoleon were nominated there. No matter what, Visual Effects will be one of the most interesting categories on the night.
Should win: Godzilla Minus One
Betting: Take your pick between Godzilla Minus One, The Creator, or Napoleon. Pick your horse and back it.
My bet: Napoleon +1400
Oppenheimer Win Total
0: +4000
1-3: +2500
4-6: +300
7-9: -300
10-12: +600
13: +2500
I love that this is an option. 7-9 wins feels exactly right (I have it at 8). The -300 odds are just a touch much for me, but if you want to throw a little bit on that just for some fun, have at it. I think it would be much more likely to take 10 or more rather than fewer than 7, so the 10-12 wins would be the other to take. 13 is the true sucker’s bet, as Emily Blunt has no shot to win Supporting Actress.
Unfortunately I had exhausted my bankroll by the time this was posted, so I don’t have any action on this. But if I were to bet, I would put something small on 10-12 wins. I think it can top out at 9, though 10 wouldn’t be a complete shock.
And there we have it! Enjoy Oscar night and hope you all come out of it a little richer!
