Here we go, one of my favorite articles to write each year! I love the Oscars and – maybe even more so – I love betting on the Oscars. As I say every year, betting on the Oscars is tricky. Often times, several categories have such heavy favorites going into Oscar night that it doesn’t make sense to bet those at all. So how do you counteract that? There are a couple ways. One, which is now a moot point, is to take a chance and bet early, and hope you hit. I did that for several categories this year, more than I usually do. It’s a bit of a risk, but it is what it is.
The other is to look for correlation. Whether that’s a precursor (for example, the DGA winner has gone on to win Best Director 8/10 years and 17/20) or correlation from one Oscar category to another, there are patterns to be found. In categories that are seemingly tight races, and one of the movies does not have a Best Picture nomination, the safer option can be to lean towards the movie that does have that nomination – not a hard and fast rule, by any means. But with all else being equal, it’s often as good a tiebreaker as anything.
Nothing is a sure thing, of course, but you can give yourself a fighting chance to keep yourself in the black by the end of the night. Lastly, as always, bet with your head not your heart. That’s how you lose money.
Odds listed are from Bovada and are current as of Tuesday, March 7th (except for Visual Effects, no odds have been listed for a while, but that category is as locked as it gets, so it doesn’t really matter). Odds can shift at any time.
As usual, I cover 19 categories, leaving out Documentary Feature and all three shorts. You’ll see I’m predicting the favorite in 17 of those categories, which…doesn’t feel great. But even though you can make a compelling case for a handful of the perceived underdogs, I just can’t get myself to switch. There will be an upset or two. Some nominee will come out of Sunday night with a little golden man that nobody expected. Kudos to anyone who has the guts to go for broke on those.
Best Picture
Will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Could win: What started as a tight race with a few movies having compelling cases has quickly turned into EEAAO being the (almost) sure thing here. All Quiet cleaned up at the BAFTAs, but that feels more and more like uniquely a BAFTAs thing, and not necessarily something to take seriously when it comes to Best Picture.
People always talk about the preferential ballot and how it allows for the possibility of an upset or surprise result. And while that’s true in theory, I don’t see practically how that would play out this year. Maybe if there was a consensus #2 pick, or a movie gaining steam (similar to CODA last year), but that’s just not the case this year.
Should win: Everything Everywhere All At Once was my #1 movie from last year, making it my obvious top choice. But I would also be thrilled to see Top Gun win. I’d be happy with a Banshees win. I would be fine with Elvis, Tár, or Women Talking. All Quiet or The Fabelmans would leave me indifferent but leaning disappointed. I don’t want Avatar, but with what Cameron means to movies as a whole, I could live with it. Basically, as long as Triangle of Sadness doesn’t win.
Betting: If you didn’t get in early on EEAAO, this should be a skip. You can maybe convince yourself All Quiet, Banshees, or Top Gun still has a chance, but I just don’t see it happening. They all have far too much working against them. Save your money here and find somewhere else to put it.
My bet: EEAAO -150
Best Director
Will win: Daniels
Could win: Steven Spielberg is still Steven Spielberg, so…maybe? But just like with Best Picture, betting against EEAAO here feels like a fool’s errand.
Should win: Daniels are my top choice, but would have no issue with McDonagh or Field.
Betting: Skip. If you think the Academy will want to spread some of the love, given how much of haul EEAAO is expected to get, you could maybe talk yourself into a Spielberg bet. Maybe you think the Academy will want to split Picture and Director. There are reasons you can find to go somewhere besides the Daniels here. I’d advise against it though.
My bet: Daniels -175
Lead Actor
Will win: Austin Butler
Could win: Toss up between Butler and Fraser. Fraser’s win at SAG may statistically give him a slight edge, but Butler won at BAFTA, which has also recently been a strong predictor of Best Actor at the Oscars (8 BAFTA winners in a row have gone on to win the Oscar). Butler also has the benefit of being in a Best Picture-nominated movie, and the Academy also loves rewarding a biopic role. And The Whale was fairly poorly received (I HATED it, fwiw), so that could play against Fraser. But he is so beloved in the industry, and that could give him the edge he needs.
Should win: Austin Butler, but this is a great category. Betting interests aside, I’ll like any result. I wouldn’t like Fraser winning for this role, but I would love seeing him win, just as a massive fan of him in general.
Betting: Butler or Fraser, whoever you think is going to win.
My bet: Austin Butler +450. This is my biggest bet of the night.
Lead Actress
Will win: Michelle Yeoh
Could win: Blanchett, another true toss up.
Should win: Michelle Yeoh, but as long as it’s her or Blanchett, I’m good. And it’s going to be one of the two. None of the other three have anything resembling a chance.
Betting: Whoever you predict to win between Yeoh and Blanchett. If Yeoh’s odds move past -200, just bet on Blanchett. No matter what the odds show between now and Sunday, this remains a true toss up.
My bet: Michelle Yeoh -140
Supporting Actor
Will win: Ke Huy Quan
Could win: Feels like a sure thing for Quan here, and deservedly so.
Should win: Ke Huy Quan
Betting: Skip, this is the only acting category that’s going into Oscar night feeling like a lock.
My bet: None
Supporting Actress
Will win: Kerry Condon
Could win: Bassett, Curtis. A true three-horse race, you love to see it. Bassett started out hot with wins at the Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes. But Condon’s win at BAFTA, and Curtis’s at SAG sets the stage for maybe the most exciting category of the night. BAFTA and SAG tend to be stronger predictors than CC or GG, but those two combined make a compelling case. Bassett and Curtis also both have the “long time actress who hasn’t won an Oscar yet” narrative, if voters might be persuaded by that.
Should win: Kerry Condon is my preferred choice, but would be no less excited to see Bassett or Curtis prevail. Hsu was also excellent in EEAAO, so I’d have no issue with that. Hong Chau would be #5 in my preference, but honestly the chaos of her winning after this build-up would be worth it.
Betting: Go with whoever you predict between those three. They all have great odds for three viable winners.
My bet: Condon +275
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Women Talking
Could win: All Quiet
Should win: Women Talking, but I’d be happy with a Glass Onion win too.
Betting: Women Talking is borderline worth a shot as a favorite, but All Quiet has the best value here.
My bet: All Quiet +140
Original Screenplay
Will win: EEAAO
Could win: Banshees (maybe this is the “consolation prize” Banshees gets since it won’t win Picture or Director)
Should win: Banshees, but I have EEAAO right behind it.
Betting: Bet your predicted winner between EEAAO and Banshees. If you want to think outside the box and finagle your way into a Tár bet, there is an avenue. Voters see EEAAO dominating the field, including Yeoh winning Best Actress, and want to award Tár. Here’s a chance. The Screenplay categories are sometimes seen as a sort of “consolation prize” for a movie that is well-liked, but isn’t going to win Best Picture. Banshees, Tár, and The Fabelmans all fit that narrative.
Obviously it’s a bigger stretch, but if you’re looking for long odds to bet, you need to get creative with your thinking to get yourself there.
My bet: EEAAO -105
Animated Feature
Will win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Could win: Feels like a sure thing for Pinocchio
Should win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
International Feature
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could win: Along with Visual Effects, this category is as locked as they come.
Should win: I struggled with the International nominees this year, having only seen All Quiet, so I can’t say.
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Cinematography
Will win: All Quiet
Could win: Maybe Elvis, but All Quiet has steadily been pulling away from the field. Elvis did win the ASC award (where All Quiet wasn’t nominated). It may not be enough, but it needed it to stay in the race.
Should win: None of my personal top 5 made it here, so I don’t have much of a dog in this fight. Elvis I guess?
Betting: Probably skip? But Elvis is right back in it after its ASC win, and Mandy Walker is highly respected and would mark the first woman to win the award.
My bet: Elvis +325
Costume Design
Will win: Elvis
Could win: Black Panther, EEAAO (probably not, but who knows, with how widely and massively popular it’s turning out to be amongst all the guilds)
Should win: Babylon
Betting: Elvis is still a pretty good bet for a favorite. The Black Panther odds are tempting, and a win there wouldn’t be surprising at all. If you’re looking for a longer shot, maybe throw something at EEAAO. It won a Costume Designers Guild award, defeating fellow Oscar nominee Black Panther in the Sci-Fi/Fantasy category. It’s also just blowing through the competition this awards season, all over the place. I can’t fault anyone for betting EEAAO in any category in which it’s nominated, no matter the odds.
My bet: Elvis +125
Film Editing
Will win: You need to go all the way back to 2007 to find an Editing winner who did not have a Sound nomination (one or both of Sound Editing and Sound Mixing through the 92nd Academy Awards in 2020 or the singular Sound category starting in the 2021 ceremony). That would put EEAAO on the outside.
However, there is an argument to be made that this trend could start fading. With there now being only the one sound category, you can argue this movie or that movie would have received a nomination in one of the two categories were there still two. I’m going with EEAAO here.
Could win: Top Gun
Should win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Betting: Top Gun is interesting. I don’t think Academy voters will want to send it home empty handed. It’s likely winning Sound, but I could see enough voters going for it here too, to help increase the chances it wins something. And with EEAAO heading towards the biggest haul of the night anyway, some might not feel as compelled to vote for it here. A Top Gun bet here wouldn’t be the worst thing. As a favorite, EEAAO is still okay, though it’s right at my limit of where I like to bet favorites.
My bet: Top Gun +130
Makeup & Hairstyling
Will win: Elvis
Could win: The Whale
Should win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Betting: Whoever you’re picking for Best Actor between Butler and Fraser, bet their movie here. It shouldn’t surprise anyone to see those two categories go hand in hand on Oscar night.
My bet: Elvis -135
Original Score
Will win: Babylon
Could win: All Quiet on the Western Front, but the fact that this isn’t a clear-cut, runaway win for Babylon is so disappointing. The only other movie that comes close is The Batman, and that wasn’t even nominated! And once again, EEAAO is nominated here too…
The Academy, by and large, HATED Babylon. And with it looking pretty well set to win Production Design, I’m not sure they’ll want to give this movie two awards. That being said, Babylon’s score is so clearly the best, I’m holding out hope voters will see it the same.
Should win: Babylon
Betting: Babylon still has decent odds as a favorite, but this category feels dicey. I might say skip this one. But a small bet on All Quiet, or even riding the EEAAO momentum wouldn’t be the worst idea. John Williams is actually decent here, as a long shot. The Academy doesn’t like Babylon, All Quiet’s score isn’t typically the kind the Oscars rewards, and I haven’t heard anyone talk about the Banshees score.
All that said, Score feels like a category where there’s a real chance to win some money on a long shot (well, at least as real as you can get when dealing with these odds). If you want to pick a category or two to go for something “out there” that might actually win, this is a spot to do it.
And keep this in mind for Original Song: Every Best Picture winner that was also nominated for Score and Song has won at least one of the two. Score is a better bet than Song for EEAAO, but both present crazy good value.
My bet: Babylon -180
Original Song
Will win: Naatu Naatu
Could win: Honestly, you could make a case for four of the nominees, with Applause the one left out. You can never discount star power like Rihanna (also coming off her Super Bowl performance) or Lady Gaga. And as I said before, you’re foolish to completely discount EEAAO for any category. I don’t see it pulling out a win here, but you never know.
Should win: I’m torn between “Hold My Hand” and “Naatu Naatu.” “Hold My Hand” is the best song, but “Naatu Naatu” was used the best in the movie (and actually in the movie, versus over the credits). So that would give “Naatu Naatu” the edge for me.
Betting: “Hold My Hand” feels like insane value. “Lift Me Up” also looks pretty tempting. And honestly, if you wanted to throw something small on “This Is a Life” here, I wouldn’t push back. It’s a long shot for a reason, but EEAAO has simply cleaned up this awards season. Why not here too?
Like Score, this is a category with some opportunity. Of all the favorites with odds like this, “Naatu Naatu” feels like the one that would be most at risk of losing. I would not be shocked at all to see Black Panther, Top Gun, or EEAAO (remember the Score/Song stat from above) to win here.
My bet: “Hold My Hand” +600
Production Design
Will win: Babylon
Could win: Elvis, All Quiet
Should win: Babylon
Betting: -275 is a little too much for my blood, but if you’re looking for spots to bet favorites, it wouldn’t be the worst. But Elvis at +275 looks mighty tempting. All Quiet has some okay value in a vacuum, if you’re looking for a long shot. But it still feels a little too unlikely here.
My bet: Elvis +200
Sound
Will win: Top Gun
Could win: All Quiet
Should win: Top Gun
Betting: All Quiet is right there in so many categories, I feel like it’s going to break through and win one or two where it may not be the night-of favorite. But if you don’t feel the same, skip this one. A Top Gun bet isn’t worth it at these odds. Elvis has the flashy sound work, so if you’re looking for categories to bet a real underdog, this could be one.
My bet: All Quiet +275
Visual Effects
Will win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Could win: Along with All Quiet for International Feature, this is the other sure thing lock of the night.
Should win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Betting: Skip. No odds were listed when I published this, but it doesn’t matter. Avatar is winning this thing with ease. Even if odds are posted by Sunday night, there would be no point in messing with a bet here.
My bet: None
Best of luck to everyone on your predictions and bets!
