It’s Oscars time, folks! And that means it’s time for one of my favorite posts each year, the preview! As always, this doubles as a gambling preview. The site I typically bet through, Bovada, only posted odds for 12 categories. I filled in the rest from MyBookie, with only Editing not listed on either as of this writing.
Betting the Oscars is tough. With all the pre-cursor awards and constant analysis and awards punditry, lots of categories tend to have a pretty heavy favorite going into the night. It removes almost all the value from those picks, while making the rest of the nominees risky bets. One way to go is to take a chance and bet early in the season, trying to time it for right before the front-runner changes (I’ve had decent luck with that this year). Or you can carefully pick your spot for an upset, as you know something weird is going to happen every year (Anthony Hopkins last year). Or pick your spots to be the favorites.
I tend to not bet favorites once the odds get past -200, -250 or so. But I usually place several smaller bets across categories, rather than dumping larger amounts on just a few. It makes the payout for me simply not worth it. If you’re placing bigger bets, you might be able to get away with betting more favorites.
I won’t be getting into all the terrible decisions the Academy has made regarding the show this year. The stupidity speaks for itself. Though I will say I am rooting *so hard* for Cinderella to win the #OscarsFanFavorite. Make no mistake, that movie sucks. But it would just be oh so sweet to see the plan to shoehorn Spider-Man recognition into the show blow all the way up in their faces.
But that’s enough of that, on to the good stuff!
*Odds are current from Bovada and MyBookie as of Thursday, March 24 at 8pm CT and are subject to change at any time (and very well may have by the time this publishes)*
Best Picture
Will win: CODA
What had been looking like an obvious win for Power of the Dog has turned into a two-horse race, with CODA by all accounts taking the pole position, stats and historical precedence be damned. CODA only has three nominations, and neither of the other two are in the usually important Director (27/30 winners were nominated there) or Film Editing (29/30 winners).
But CODA is peaking at the right moment, taking home the top prize at SAG and PGA (it’s important to note the PGA awards are the only pre-cursor to use preferential voting).
Could win: CODA’s win is certainly no guarantee, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if The Power of the Dog wins. Outside of those two, however, and we’d be looking a truly shocking result.
Should win: Belfast is my #1 movie from 2021. Dune (#9) is the only other one from my top 10, but CODA (#13), Licorice Pizza (#14), and King Richard (#18) are all in my top 20. Don’t Look Up (#155) is the only movie I’m actively rooting against.
Betting: Whichever you believe will win between CODA and TPOTD. I don’t see any value in putting any size action on any other movie.
My bet: CODA +300; Don’t Look Up +2000 (took this one nomination morning, both on the chance it became one of the favorites (whoops), and as a happiness hedge.)
Best Director
Will win: Campion
Could win: Campion’s comments in her Critic’s Choice acceptance speech did rub some people the wrong way. But will it be enough to sway enough voters to change their vote?
Should win: I’d say Branagh just because it’s my favorite movie of the bunch, but I don’t have a strong personal feeling here.
Betting: Skip. Even if you think Campion wrecked her chances (I don’t, not at all), it would be hard to settle on a solid #2. Probably Spielberg, but take your pick between him and Branagh. But again, I’d leave this one alone.
My bet: None
Lead Actor
Will win: Will Smith, and it’s about time!
Could win: Nope.
Should win: Smith, give the man his flowers already!
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Lead Actress
Will win: Chastain
Could win: This category is wide open. Just look at those odds! There’s even a path for Cruz to pull the upset.
Should win: Stewart, I still think she gave the single best performance of the year in Spencer.
Betting: Take your pick, but I personally would avoid Chastain at these current odds. Yes, she’s running in that first position right now, and -200 marks pretty good betting odds for a favorite. But it still feels a little shaky. You can make an argument for anyone here, which is tons of fun with the other three acting categories entering the night as near locks.
My bet: I took Kidman early at +200, hoping she would sweep the season. Oh well, what can you do. I also put a very small bet on Cruz at +1500. I always find a couple “what the hell, let’s back a long shot” bets to make.
Supporting Actor
Will win: Kotsur
Could win: Smit-McPhee
Should win: Kotsur
Betting: Kotsur’s odds have become a bit prohibitive. Smit-McPhee has a chance, but I would still be very surprised at this point if Kotsur loses.
My bet: I took Kotsur at +350, jumped on it right after he won at SAG.
Supporting Actress
Will win: DeBose. She’s won everything, no reason to believe that will change.
Could win: Nope
Should win: DeBose
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: CODA
Could win: TPOTD, The Lost Daughter
Should win: CODA
Betting: If you think CODA has a shot at Best Picture, it will almost assuredly win here too. If you bet it for BP, bet it here too. But even if ultimately loses BP, it can still win here. TPOTD still poses a threat, and you can even make a case for The Lost Daughter.
My bet: CODA at +350
Original Screenplay
Will win: Belfast
Could win: Licorice Pizza, Don’t Look Up
Should win: The Worst Person in the World
Betting: Whichever you think will win between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. After its WGA win over Licorice Pizza (Belfast wasn’t eligible), Don’t Look Up is maybe the most intriguing bet of the night.
My bet: Belfast at +175. The Worst Person in the World at +1600 is another one of my long shots.
Animated Feature
Will win: Encanto
Could win: The Mitchells vs the Machines
Should win: Raya and the Last Dragon
Betting: Probably should be a skip, but those Mitchells odds are pretty tempting…
My bet: Mitchells +350 (I caved)
International Film
Will win: Drive My Car
Could win: Flee, The Worst Person in the World, but in reality, probably no movie but Drive My Car can win
Should win: The Worst Person in the World
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Cinematography
Will win: TPOTD. It doesn’t quite feel right to have Power only come away with a Director win. Since I’m going CODA in Picture and Adapted, this would seem to be it’s best bet of the remaining categories, so here we are.
Could win: Dune (honestly this should probably be my prediction…)
Should win: Dune, but this is a stacked category. Can’t really go wrong
Betting: Power is pretty hard to skip over here, unless you think Dune is total lock. I don’t, so…
My bet: TPOTD at +215
Costume Design
Will win: Cruella
Could win: If you’re looking for a spoiler, I’d follow the odds and say Dune, but I don’t see it happening.
Should win: Cyrano should have gotten more love, so I’d love to see it win here for its lone nomination
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Film Editing
Will win: King Richard
Could win: Another pick ’em, though Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog seem to be more on the outside.
Should win: Probably King Richard, but this is a killer set of nominees
Betting: N/A
Neither Bovada nor MyBookie had odds posted. But be sure to keep checking. This is a really interesting category and could provide some nice value if either posts odds before the ceremony.
My bet: N/A
Makeup & Hairstyling
Will win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye. If you think Chastain wins for Actress, it makes all the sense in the world for Tammy Faye to win here too.
Could win: Honestly, it’s not out of the question for Cruella, Dune, or even Coming 2 America to pull it out.
Should win: Tammy Faye
Betting: As far as favorites go, Tammy Faye isn’t an awful option. But looking at the odds in a vacuum, it’s not great. But if you’re desparate for favorites to bet, your options are limited this year.
If you can find a site that allows parlay bets (neither Bovada or MyBookie allows parlays on Oscar bets), a Chastain/Tammy Faye parlay might be the play. If you’re predicting someone other than Chastain, then Cruella or Dune both make for fine bets.
My bet: None
Production Design
Will win: Dune
Could win: Nightmare Alley
Should win: Dune
Betting: Take what I said above about Tammy Faye, and the same applies here to Dune.
Dune’s won all the major pre-cursor awards, but the -350 might point to a little more uncertainty. Nightmare Alley looks tremendous, and there is a feeling it could pull the upset. Completely speculative, but with Dune running away with several of the technical categories, it’s possible some voters look for categories to award other films. This could be one of them.
My bet: Nightmare Alley +250; West Side Story +1400 (one last “what the hell” long shot)
Score
Will win: Dune
Could win: The Power of the Dog
Should win: Dune
Betting: I wouldn’t get sucked in by the odds for TPOD or Encanto. Certainly feels like a lock for Hans Zimmer’s second Oscar
My bet: None
Song
Will win: Dos Oruguitas. Even though We Don’t Talk About Bruno is the big hit song, Encanto in general is just a monster. I think that carries it through.
Could win: No Time To Die
Should win: Dos Oruguitas. It’s not a credits song – something I wish would be a requirement for this category. That alone makes it the worthy winner.
Betting: Dos Oruguitas. If you’re looking for a favorite to bet where it doesn’t present as a true toss up (like Original Screenplay), No Time To Die is really the only option.
My bet: Dos Oruguitas at +225
Sound
Will win: Dune
Could win: Feels like another Dune lock
Should win: Toss-up between Dune and No Time to Die
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Visual Effects
Will win: Dune
Could win: Dune feels like a lock
Should win: Dune
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
*In the spirit of full transparency, all bets I placed at the time of this writing were included here. I always prefer to bet the full amount I deposit (I only bet the Oscars, so might as well), and I still have a little money left, so I’ll likely throw a couple more bets before the ceremony. I’m mostly keeping my fingers crossed that Editing odds get posted.*
And there we go! Hopefully this will assist with your predictions and will help earn you a little green come Sunday night.
