The 90th Academy Awards are just about upon us, airing Sunday, March 4. As with most years, I’m going into it with modest expectations. There are bound to be a few memorable moments, but I’m not holding out much hope for anything revolutionary her, from an entertainment standpoint. But nevertheless, for whatever reason it’s still exciting to see how the results shake out.
I saw every movie here except for Mudbound and Phantom Thread (note I’m not covering every category here, so there are still plenty of nominated movies that I haven’t seen). Though I tried, I really did. Got about 20 or so minutes into both and had to stop. I can’t remember many other movies where I’ve been that bored. And here we had two.
One last small note. I’ll be referencing betting odds here and there. If you don’t need a quick once-over, you can skip ahead. Odds are based on values of $100. For example, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has -115 odds to win Best Picture, while The Shape of Water’s odds are +140. That means Three Billboards is the favorite and you would need to bet $115 to win $100. For Shape, a bet of $100 would win you $140. All odds referenced will come from Bovada,
So without further ado, I present my expert* predictions for what will happen in the major categories, along with a few extra thoughts. Each category will be ordered in the way that I would rank them, bottom to top, followed by who I think will actually win the award.
*not expert
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Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Didn’t finish the movie.
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
This movie just wasn’t any good. Sure, del Toro did a great job with what he had, but what he had was a garbage movie.
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Very creatively shot, some stunning visuals, and a spattering of intense dramatic scenes. However, the movie just wasn’t quite good enough (though still very good).Jordan Peele, Get Out
What he was able to accomplish was nothing short of amazing. It’s even more impressive when you consider it was his directorial debut. All the subtleties, foreshadowing, Easter eggs, and everything else he was able to slip in was just ridiculous. He’ll never win, not with competition like del Toro and Nolan, but I think Peele is at the very least as deserving as those two. I can’t wait to see what kind of projects Peele gifts us with in the future.
My winner: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
If you can take a premise as simple as “girl goes to high school” and turn it into a movie so roundly praised by both critics and fans alike, you deserve recognition. There was no one Oscar-winning scene nor any particularly spectacular visuals. But everything was shot so deliberately, everything had its own purpose. The movie was perfectly cast and Gerwig seemed to get exactly what she wanted out of every single character. This movie proves you don’t need to do anything extraordinary. Sometimes, to put it simply, you just need to do your job. That’s what she did, and she did it better than the other nominees.
Who will win: Guillermo del Toro. While I was less than impressed with “Shape of Water” the simple fact is he’s going to win this award. As of this writing, he’s the heavy favorite, at -1000.
Supporting Actress
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Didn’t finish the movie.
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Didn’t finish the movie.
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
I love Octavia Spencer, she’s awesome. But there was nothing about her performance that separated herself from the other nominees.
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
She was great as a mother who just wanted to do right by her daughter. She came off as so real and so authentic. It was easy to picture her character in the real world as an actual person.
My winner: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Janney was just too good. She was a level above the other nominees. And she did it in a more important role in her movie than Metcalf did in her’s; I think that should count for something.
Who will win: Allison Janney
The favorite, and for good reason.
Supporting Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
I have no issues with Jenkins’ performance, but he wasn’t even the best actor in this movie. Michael Shannon would have been a more deserving nominee.
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Nothing groundbreaking with the actual performance but consider the circumstances. Plummer was in this movie as a last-minute recast after the Kevin Spacey allegations broke. Plummer shot all his scenes in just 9 days. A truly impressive feat.
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
He was great. But even in a supporting role, he wasn’t in the movie enough to warrant a win.
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
There’s no questioning it, Dafoe gave an award-winning performance. My one (minor) complaint is that there was no real story arc, we didn’t see the whole depth of his character. There was no complexity to Bobby.
My winner: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
He’s your stereotypical racist southerner. And he crushed it. Forget the controversy surrounding his character arc. More specifically, his incomplete character arc, a fact critics of his nomination conveniently forget to mention. Yes, he had started down the path of redemption, but there was no guarantee he would stay the course. And even still, so what? Yeah, his character was a prick. But he acted the hell out of it. Reward the man.
Who will win: Sam Rockwell, he deserves the win.
Lead Actress
Meryl Streep, The Post
She was fine, she just wasn’t anything special. But give me Jessica Chastain, or The Florida Project’s Brooklynn Prince.
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
I’m always impressed when someone plays a role like this so well, one that completely limits them in such an unfamiliar way. My dislike for this movie might be a factor in putting her this low. It would have been cool to see a mute actress take this role, but here we are.
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Lady Bird was one of my favorite characters I’ve seen in a long time. Ronan captured the mood of a conflicted teenage perfectly. While I’m confident in my personal rankings of having her in the three spot, I would have zero problems with her winning.
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
She was an utter joy as Tonya Harding, but didn’t do enough to overtake the next person on the nominee list.
My winner: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
If you’ve seen the movie, you know. There’s not much else to say. She killed it, absolutely killed it. A perfect casting.
Who will win: Frances McDormand, duh. Odds at -2500?? About as much of a sure thing as you can get.
Lead Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Didn’t finish the movie.
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
It shows how strong the nominees are if I’ve got Chalamet at 4/5. But as great as he was, I just couldn’t find a way to put him any higher.
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
This was a great movie with a great director, and you don’t get those kind of results without a great lead actor. Kaluuya was fantastic, there’s no way around it. Unfortunately for him, he’s going up against some juggernauts this year. Hopefully his time will come.
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
A good movie elevated by one man’s performance. Oldman certainly turned in an Award-worthy performance but, as you’ll see below, this time around I’m going full fanboy.
My winner: Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq
I’ll admit it, this is a homer pick. But Denzel is the truth. If he’s in it, I’m watching it. He yet again put on another thoroughly amazing performance. You’re so used to seeing Denzel as this tough, macho, alpha male (Alonzo Harris in Training Day, Herman Boone in Remember the Titans, John Creasy in Man on Fire, Frank Lucas in American Gangster, for just a few examples), it was almost shocking to see him as this meek, mild-mannered genius lawyer. As extraordinarily average as this movie was, Denzel still managed to turn in a star performance. He’s not winning this award, but he should.
Who will win: Gary Oldman. It’s really not even a question at this point. It would be a huge shock if anyone but Oldman takes home the statue. Like McDormand, he’s a huge favorite, also at -2500.
Best Picture
Phantom Thread
Didn’t finish the movie.
The Shape of Water
Nope, just no. I’ll just say it. This movie was bad. Yes, there was some great acting here. But the movie as a whole stunk. There are a ton of movies I would have given a nomination to over this. I, Tonya; Baby Driver; The Florida Project; Disaster Artist; Logan; The Big Sick; Molly’s Game, just to name a few.
Call Me by Your Name
A very touching story with great performances by Timothée Chalamet and Armie Hammer. But the rest of the characters were very “eh.” Everything outside of Elio and Oliver (and Elio’s dad’s final speech) lacked substance.
The Post
I knew the general story behind the movie, but not much more than the major points. It’s a truly fascinating point in our nation’s history. And any time you can get Tom Hanks and Bob Odenkirk on screen together, sign me the eff up.
Dunkirk
I think Christopher Nolan told the best story he could while remaining (more or less, as I understand it) faithful to the actual events. And obviously the true story is incredible and miraculous. Unfortunately it just didn’t translate to a Best Picture quality movie.
Darkest Hour
I loved it the first time I watched it. Then I watched it again and realized that most of what I liked so much was just Gary Oldman. Still a good, solid movie, but his performance was too much of a factor of what made the movie good. A Best Picture winner needs to be more well-rounded.
Get Out
I usually don’t like horror movies, but this is not your typical movie, horror or otherwise. I mentioned it some when I went over the directors, but this was just an impressive movie, through and through.
Lady Bird
Like Get Out, this was another surprise for me. But Lady Bird was just…good. Very, very good. It was, among other things, engaging, funny, dramatic. I’ll say it again, plain and simple, it was just a good movie.
My winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
While not the most fun movie-watching experience of the year (give that to Baby Driver or Disaster Artist) but Three Billboards was simply the best film of the year.
What will win: Three Billboards (-115), but it’s close with Shape of Water (+140). But if you’re looking for a sleeper, consider Get Out. With the Best Picture being voted on using a preferential voting system, there is an outside chance we could see Get Out pull an upset here. Read these articles from Gold Derby and Deadline for some more info on how that works. But if I’m placing a bet, I’m going with Get Out. That’s where the fun money is.
So that’s it for the real categories. Now it’s time to have some fun. For your consideration, the expertly* thought out and thoroughly analyzed** “Matt’s Awards That Don’t Exist But Totally Should.”
*again, not an expert
**bit of a stretch
Various NSFW links/content await. Oh, and spoilers, because…duh.
Best Movie That Wasn’t Nominated For Best Picture
The obvious choices here might include the likes of I, Tonya; The Big Sick; and Wonder Woman but I’m going to go a different route and say Baby Driver. That movie was stupid enjoyable, one of the most fun movie-watching experiences I’ve had in a long time. A heist movie with some of the usual tropes, but one that also managed to fit in its own voice. It might sound corny but the end result was magical. And the use of music in Baby Driver was one of the best things in any movie this year. I completely understand why a movie like this would be left out of the Best Picture nominees, but if I had to pick one movie to watch again between the nominees and this, it’s Baby Driver every time.
Worst Movie
The easy answer here would be The Emoji Movie, Geostorm, or The Snowman. (haven’t seen any of them, but I’ve read enough online to know how horrendous they must be). For me though, it was Netflix’s Death Note. The anime from which it was adapted was fantastic. That’s also on Netflix, definitely watch that and then pretend this movie doesn’t exist. I don’t have enough bad things to say about this one. Starting with the whitewashing, and ending with…well, basically everything.
Best Performances Not To Be Nominated
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Given the allegations against him, his not being nominated is certainly understandable. And I support that if that’s the reasoning behind it. But from strictly a performance standpoint, Franco turned in what may be a career-best performance.
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Battles with Zero Dark Thirty for her best performance. A great job in a great movie that isn’t getting enough love.
Tom Hanks, The Post
Huge snub. Take out Day-Lewis or Chalamet and put Mr. Hanks in there.
Gal Gadot, Wonder Woman
She had a huge job taking on this iconic role and she left her mark and made it just that, iconic. Both Gadot and Chastain were much more deserving than Meryl Streep of a Lead Actress nomination.
Hugh Jackman, Logan
Jackman gave a surprisingly emotional performance in a role that has mostly been about the killing aspect of the unkillable killing machine that is Wolverine. I’m not sure you could realistically argue his performance was better than any of the Lead Actor nominees, but it is still more than worth mentioning.
The Actual Best Original Song
I’ll be up front and admit that I did not see any of the movies that have a song nominated in the Best Original Song category. I’ll be up front again and say that doesn’t matter because the Actual Best Original Song has only one choice, “Evermore”from Beauty and the Beast. Plus, huuuuuge Disney guy over here.
Most Unexpected Emotional Gut Punch
Kingsman: Golden Circle, “West Virginia” scene
This was a punch to the heart that I didn’t expect to come from this movie. I watched this every time I revised/proofed this post (which was a lot). Still gets me every time. RIP in peace, Merlin.
Best Performances by a Child Actors
Dafne Keen as Laura/X-23, Logan
What a performance for a feature-film debut. She was truly excellent. If she had gotten an actual acting nomination, I would have been 100% okay with it.
The kids in The Florida Project
Along with Dafoe, the kids carried this movie. Casting child actors is hard, so the fact that this movie got such good performances from all their kids is more than impressive. They were just kids being kids and it worked pretty much to perfection. I couldn’t find a compilation clip, but this one shows them just briefly acting like any kid would who was in their situation.
Best Reinvention of a Character
Thor in Thor: Ragnarok
Thor and Thor: Dark World are often considered two of the weaker MCU movies, though the performances of Chris Hemsworth and Tom Hiddleston have always been praised. Both, particularly Hemsworth, had previously shown some serious comedic chops and Ragnarok really leaned into that. The result was a legit action-comedy, which maybe even veered closer to straight up comedy. What we got was not only the best of the Thor series, but one of the best MCU movies overall. If Hemsworth ends up coming back for a fourth outing, whoever writes and directs it would be wise to stick to this model.
Best/Favorite Scenes (just a few)
Baby Driver, opening scene
Damn, this was a fun movie.
Call Me By Your Name, Professor Perlman’s speech to Elio
Get the tissues ready. If there was an Oscar for best scene, I’d put my money on this one.
Kingsman: Golden Circle, The best fight scenes
Sure this movie had its share of problems, but damn they can put together some seriously fun action scenes.
Man, Oberynn just can’t get catch a break, can he?
Darkest Hour, Blood, toil, tears, and sweat speech
I couldn’t find the movie clip online anywhere so I guess this will have to do.
I, Tonya, Young Tonya gives the finger
Couldn’t find a clip but a picture will do just fine here. Call me out on it if you must, but it’s hilarious to me when little kids swear or do things like this.
The Florida Project, Opening Scene
I can’t mention liking kids swearing and not throw in this scene. I couldn’t find the full clip but you can see part of it at the beginning of this one.
Get Out, The Sunken Place
I don’t think this needs any other explanation other than saying no explanation is needed.
Fate of the Furious, Prison escape scene
I will never complain about any time you get to see Jason Statham and The Rock in all their glory. So much over the top action. So much that, to my untrained eye at least, should not be possible. The Rock literally flexing away rubber bullets? Incredible. The Fast and Furious series jumped the shark a long time ago, and I am here for it.
Favorite Scenes: Superhero Edition
Logan, We’re introduced to Laura
Yeah, this girl’s a total badass.
Wonder Woman, No Man’s Land
I’ve seen this movie multiple times, and watched this specific scene many more. Goose bumps. Every time.
Thor: Ragnarok, All Korg, all the time
This dude was simply the best.
Spider-Man: Homecoming, The Dad Talk
Just. So. Good.
Justice League, Supercut of all the super awesome amazing scenes because it was too hard to only pick one
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Guardians of the Galaxy 2, Groot looks for a red fin
Guardians of the Galaxy 2, “I’m Mary Poppins, y’all”
All right, that’s a wrap on the Oscars preview. Thank you to those brave few who made it all the way to the end of my incessant rambling. Hope you enjoyed it. Tune in to ABC on Sunday, March 4th to see how the winners shake out.
