Episode 22
With Dani out of the game, Flick is the last Brawn standing, which is a major concern for both Hayley and George. Part of the reason they voted Dani out was because of how many friends she had on the jury. The same concern remains for Flick. You could say she has four automatic votes in the four Brawn jury members. That means she only needs one more vote. She also has no real blood on her hands. That could speak to a quiet game that didn’t involve many moves. But having friendly faces on the jury can make a huge difference. But unfortunately for Hayley and George, Flick has an idol. With the next Tribal Council the last chance to use idols, Flick’s spot in the final four is secure and guaranteed.
But that’s still just one more spot. By all accounts, it would still be a 3-1 split, with Flick the odd one out. She needs to start shaking things up now. She talks to Wai, and they consider aiming for a Final 3 with them and Hayley. That’s a poor option for Wai. Her likely only chance at winning is going up against Cara in the Final 2.
Making his own plans, George tells Hayley he believes sitting with her at the end is his only chance at winning. Hayley has more confidence in her game, and welcomes any other player who is actively trying to go to the end with her.
Immunity Challenge
The five remaining castaways crawl upside down across a pole to retrieve a bag of sand bags. They throw the sand bags to knock blocks off a ledge. They push the blocks along beam to release key, which unlocks a grappling hook. Use the hook to snag bags of puzzle pieces to solve the puzzle.
Everyone but Wait gets past the pole. Wai continues to struggle on the pole; she just can’t make it. In what may be an unprecedented move, George stops throwing his bags and goes back to help Wai cross the pole. You could go back and forth all day debating whether or not it was a game move or purely a human moment. But it was such a great, heart-warming moment, let’s just sit with it and enjoy it.
Cara gets to the puzzle first and gets oh so close. But she gets tripped up near the end, and can’t quite figure out what she needs to fix. This is just the opening Hayley needs to secure her third immunity win, fourth if you count the absurd “let’s make five people immune for this vote” decision.
Pre-Tribal
With Flick’s idol, she has to decide how to approach this Tribal Council. Does she keep it a secret or use it as a bargaining chip to target someone specific? The biggest reason for her to keep it a secret would be if she’s confident all four votes are coming her way. She sees this as a very strong group of four, so there’s a decent chance that’s how she thinks it’s going to turn out. But. When it comes down to it, there’s really no reason not to use the idol to leverage her position in the game.
George sees Flick sitting away from camp, not looking for an idol. This makes him think she might have the idol. He gets to work on planning a split vote with Cara. He knows Flick is voting for either him or Cara, so he wants Cara to vote for Wai with him. Cara is hesitant, because…reasons.
She doesn’t believe Flick has idol. She has no reason to believe that, but she does. Cara wants to keep the vote simple, apparently not realizing that this is a simple vote. Cara’s bigger worry lies in how this would affect their relationship with Hayley and Wai if Flick doesn’t have the idol. I get that sentiment, but you’re at a point in the game where sometimes you just have to push your feelings aside. If Cara doesn’t go along with George’s plan and Flick plays an idol, Cara or George goes home, in a completely preventable situation.
Flick pulls Hayley aside to discuss the vote. Flick proposes the idea of Hayley and Wai voting with Flick to get rid of George. Hayley is open to the idea, but won’t do anything without Wai’s full support. Wai knows how big of a threat George is, but feels she owes him from his help during the immunity challenge. That just might explain the fundamental difference between how George and Wai approach and play Survivor.
You don’t owe anyone anything in Survivor. No action in Survivor is completely selfless. There’s always a self-serving purpose in there somewhere. It’s that difference in mindset that just might allow George to save himself yet again, resulting in Wai’s elimination.
But back to Flick, she doesn’t reveal her idol. Why not?? The fact that she doesn’t consider the possibility of a split vote illustrates her lack of understanding on the strategic aspects of Survivor. There have been plenty of instances of players lacking strategic prowess this season, and this might be the biggest one yet, given the point in the game we’re at. You’re at the Final 5, there’s no point for someone in Flick’s position to play it safe right now. Her spot is guaranteed, and if she lets Hayley and Wai in on her idol, they would be extremely incentivized to work with her, especially Wai.
Tribal Council
Even at Tribal, Cara is still uncertain about George’s plan. In their whispering, she tells George she wants to keep it simple, with George saying he wants to keep it safe. The thing is, George’s plan is both simple and safe. Yes, if Flick didn’t have an idol, he would have to deal with Wai. And even if it left Wai upset, the logic behind George’s decision would be crystal clear.
The one saving grace for George is that his plan still could come through even without Cara. If Flick doesn’t have an idol, his vote for Wai is meaningless, as it would then be a 3-1-1 vote for Flick. If Flick were to play an idol in this scenario, he would at least get himself to a re-vote. At a bare minimum, he would prevent Flick’s single vote from being the deciding factor, and give himself a chance to pitch his case to stay.
In the end, though, Cara does go with George’s plan, sending Wai to the jury. And Flick wasted a golden opportunity to maximize her idol. What’s even worse is that she didn’t even try to take full advantage. Once again, her strategic shortcomings are to blame here, as she didn’t see the full picture of how this vote could turn out.
She even could have done something at Tribal. Play it before the votes are cast, and tell everyone you’re voting for George. You gotta do something. As strong of a jury threat as she is from a social standpoint, her strategic misfires would give a Final 2 opponent some good ammunition to counter with. But on the other hand, will the jury recognize that? The current jury isn’t exactly full of strategic masterminds. But with two votes still to go, those are questions we may not even have to answer.
This sets up a super intriguing Final 4. Hayley and Flick are clearly the biggest challenge threats. It could stand to reason that the target should be whichever of them doesn’t win immunity. But at the same time, George is still seen as a massive strategic threat. Which threat do you go for? And Cara, who at this point I see having no chance to win the game, could be the crucial number in the next vote, possibly having an opportunity to swing the game in her favor with a big blindside of George.
Episode 23
Immunity Challenge
The players race up and over a net, collecting four balls, which they throw at a wall of puzzle pieces to knock the pieces down. They use the pieces to build a staircase. Climbing up the staircase, they retrieve a bucket, which they fill with water, to fill a barrel, passing over hurdles along the way. When the barrel is full, it opens a gate which releases six more balls. These balls are rolled up a ramp, having to land each one in a pocket.
Hayley gets to the ramp with a massive lead. She lands four balls before anyone else even gets to the final stage. Hayley and Flick both get to five balls. After a few near-makes each, Flick lands her sixth, completing a huge comeback and winning immunity.
Pre-Tribal
Even though George had been the long-standing target, Flick’s target is shifting. Knowing how big a challenge threat Hayley is, that might be the smartest move. Given that the final immunity challenge is likely going to be some sort of physical endurance challenge, Flick would be a MASSIVE favorite if going up against George and Cara. If Hayley’s in the mix, Flick still has a shot, but you have to imagine it would be Hayley’s challenge to lose.
Oh, Cara. When talking to Hayley, she tells her of Flick’s plan to vote out Hayley. Not that Hayley was ever going to stop working, all this does is give her extra motivation and an extra angle to work. She digs in on Cara. And Cara, to her credit, does recognize how great of a game George has played, and that taking him out would be a big move. But while she knows this, she says she’s not sure she is emotionally ready to make that move.
Hayley next goes to work on George. Playing to his strategic mind, she talks the next move. If Hayley goes out now, George’s game is toast. Flick wins the final immunity and takes Cara to the end. Once again, Hayley is saying and doing all the right things. Now it’s just a matter of whether or not that hard work pays any dividends. And if her plan works, she has the choice of voting either Cara or George. Hayley is obviously a smart player. While I bet she would prefer to see George go, she needs to play the odds. Is George more likely to vote for Cara, or is Cara more likely to vote for George? With that in mind, Hayley voting Cara is the smart choice.
Tribal Council
So Hayley is amazing. She got both George and Cara to flip their votes to each other. Hayley’s vote for Cara sends her to the jury in an epic 2-1-1 vote. This vote is a great example of why U.S. Survivor needs to do away with the Final 4 Fire-Making Challenge. At the Final 4, there’s a decent chance it goes to fire anyway. But by allowing the players to actually play the game, you allow for incredible strategic maneuvering like we saw from Hayley here.
I’ll plan to have a full preview out later this week, but I have some quick thoughts here. First and foremost, this is an absolutely epic final three. George and Hayley have driven the strategy, with Hayley also being a challenge beast. But both have flipped and maybe don’t have the best personal relationships with the jury as a whole.
Flick has played a phenomenal social game, and has been effective in challenges as well. But her strategic game has been abysmal. She hasn’t sent one person to the jury. The only times she’s even voted correctly, the vote was either negated by an idol (Laura and Cara), or it was sending Hayley to Redemption Rock, from which she eventually returned. She squandered two chances this week when she held a power position. You could argue her biggest strategic moment was when she randomly picked the correct urn after being voted out.
But if Flick makes it to the end, she feels like an auto-win. I can’t see the three Brawn members voting against her, meaning she would only need two more votes. That likely wouldn’t be too hard; she would probably get that and then some. But that doesn’t mean Hayley and George can’t win against her. They both have very strong cases for why they should win. It would just be more of an uphill battle against Flick than against each other. But whatever the end result comes to be, I cannot wait to see it play out next Sunday.
Tags: Australian Survivor, Survivor, Survivor AU
