Every year, I tell myself two things about the Oscars:
1) Don’t let yourself get suckered into early (like months ahead of time early) bets
2) Don’t bet all the underdogs
I did okay on the early bets. I bet Ariana Grande back in November, and Timothée Chalamet in December. And I’m okay with both of those. I like the process, and Chalamet still has a chance, however small. And with Grande, I genuinely believe she should win Supporting Actress, so the fact I got her at +2000, I’m totally fine with that. I couldn’t have predicted a co-lead in a terrible movie would steamroll the Supporting Actress precursors.
As for underdog bets, I have 13 bets, with 11 at plus odds. But two of those, Picture and Director, have since become the betting favorites. Others are more strategic. Namely, if Conclave wins Picture, maybe it pulls a an upset or two throughout the night. I still probably have too many plus odds bets, but oh well, c’est la vie.
For a historical perspective, last year, five underdogs won:
- Emma Stone, Lead Actress, +110
- The Boy and the Heron, Animated Feature, +120
- Poor Things, Costume, -115
- Poor Things, Makeup, +140
- The Zone of Interest Sound , +175
So even with a handful of underdogs winning, none of them were true long-shots. Not every betting favorite will win, of course, so I can only hope I hit on a couple of the categories where that happens.
But no matter what, it’s going to be a fun night, and I can’t wait!
Odds are current from Bovada as of Tuesday, February 25
Conclave’s late SAG win is making this a race. That plus BAFTA plus an all-but-guaranteed Adapted Screenplay win plus a strong possibility of winning Editing is definitely a compelling case. But Anora’s precursor combo of DGA, WGA, and especially PGA is tough to overcome. That PGA win is what makes me more confident in Anora taking it over the finish line.
Conclave also doesn’t have a Best Director nomination, normally a bellwether of Best Picture winners. In the last 30 years, 26 winners had that nomination. Not counting the WGA, where Conclave was ineligible, this is the only major precursor nomination that Conclave missed.
But however you cut it, this is a two-picture race between Anora and Conclave. Sure, something else *could* win. But there are no stats to push one as spoiler over another. Maybe The Brutalist surprises. A Complete Unknown hasn’t won anything aside from Chalamet’s last second SAG win. Wicked has won plenty of crafts awards, plus Best Director at Critics’ Choice, so could the below the line support translate to a big upset? Again, I suppose, but Anora and Conclave have won the bigger precursors.
Will win: Anora
Should win: Dune: Part Two
Could win: Conclave
Betting: Pretty simple, bet your winner pick between Anora and Conclave (“bet your winner pick” is going to be a common theme here).
My bet: Anora +500
You have to go all the way back to 2003 to find the last time the Best Picture winner didn’t win either Director or Screenplay. If you’re predicting Anora for Picture, there’s a good chance Sean Baker is winning Director and/or Original Screenplay. Combine that with his DGA win, and he makes for a good bet here.
Over the last 30 years, the DGA winner has matched with Oscar 25 times. But this still remains a two-horse race. If it’s not going to be Baker, it will be Corbet.
Will win: Sean Baker
Should win: Brady Corbet
Could win: Brady Corbet
Betting: Keeping the theme, bet your winner pick.
My bet: Sean Baker +600
Chalamet’s SAG win leaves the door open, even if just a crack. On an individual basis, the SAG winner is the most predictive of the four major precursors. But Brody won the other three. A Chalamet win wouldn’t be a complete surprise, but I – literally – wouldn’t bet on it.
Will win: Adrien Brody
Should win: Timothée Chalamet
Could win: Timothée Chalamet
Betting: Brody
My bet: Timothée Chalamet +350. Yeah, okay, this contradicts what I said above, but I tried to call my shot back in December. I would bet Brody today if I hadn’t gone for that.
My head says Moore, but since I’m going with Anora for Picture, I’m sticking with Mikey Madison here.
And Fernanda Torres is still a wild card. Between BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG, she was only nominated for a Globe, which she won. And the big push for I’m Still Here started late, but still in plenty of time for Oscar voting. Do I *think* it’s going to happen? I don’t. But as far as potential upsets go, this is one of the more likely ones to happen.
Will win: Mikey Madison
Should win: Fernanda Torres
Could win: Demi Moore
Betting: Winner pick between Moore and Madison, or go with Torres if you’re feeling frisky.
My bet: Madison +180
Culkin swept the major precursors, so he’ll complete that sweep come Oscar night. If you’re looking for an excuse to place some action somewhere else, consider this: Of the last 30 winners, 22 were in a Best Picture nominated movie, including 12 in a row and 14/15. Culkin is not. That’s pretty much the only argument you can make against him. But winning BAFTA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG is exactly what he needed to do to secure this win.
Will win: Kieran Culkin
Should win: Guy Pearce
Could win: Nobody.
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Saldaña has stayed out of the all the Emilia Pérez controversy. Which makes sense, she didn’t do anything to draw anybody’s ire, she didn’t get dragged into it any way. This is hers. Her win will be very similar to Brendan Fraser’s for me. Great actor who is more than deserving of the win, who I will be thrilled to see become an Oscar winner. But I just hate that they won for the movie they did.
Will win: Zoe Saldaña
Should win: Ariana Grande
Could win: With the SAG win completing her sweep, Saldaña has this in the bag.
Betting: Skip
My bet: Ariana Grande +2000 (took a stab (way) early, back in November, oh well)
This feels pretty much all sewn up for Conclave. Nickel Boys won at the WGA, but Conclave wasn’t eligible. Conclave won every other important precursor.
Will win: Conclave
Should win: Conclave
Could win: Maybe the Nickel Boys WGA win propels it to win here? Wouldn’t count on it though.
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
To be honest, Anora’s odds feel too short. It seems to be coasting off its perceived strength in other big categories. It won WGA (The Substance was ineligible), while A Real Pain won BAFTA, and The Substance took Critics’ Choice.
And I’ll repeat the point about the correlation between Best Picture winners and Director and Screenplay winners. And not only that, but in the last 30 years, 26 Original Screenplay winners also had a Best Picture nomination, including 19 years in a row. It feels like A Real Pain is a close #2, but that lack of Best Picture nomination makes it tough to actually predict it. Makes for a decent bet though.
Will win: Anora
Should win: The Brutalist
Could win: The Substance, A Real Pain.
Betting: Anora’s odds are too short for my liking, but couldn’t fault anyone for laying their action behind the Best Picture front-runner, even at those odds. Nothing wrong with taking a shot on The Substance or A Real Pain,
My bet: A Real Pain +600
The Wild Robot won at the Annies, Critics’ Choice, PGA, and Visual Effects Society. Flow won the Golden Globe, and I think we can throw away Wallace and Gromit’s BAFTA win. None of these wins on their own are especially predictive of winning the Oscar, but Wild Robot with four strong precursor wins speaks to its strength. It also has nominations in Score and Sound, so there’s support in other branches of the Academy.
But Flow is great too, is a unique movie, and by all accounts writer-director Gints Zilbalodis is incredibly well-liked in the industry. It’s not enough for me to predict an upset, but it’s enough where it wouldn’t be shocking were it to happen.
Will win: The Wild Robot
Should win: The Wild Robot
Could win: Flow
Betting: Skip or Flow
My bet: The Wild Robot -130
This is an interesting one. With all the controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez, there was lots of talk of I’m Still Here coming from behind and taking this win. Emilia Pérez has won all the major precursors, but I’m Still Here was nominated alongside it each time. If International is a toss-up, you can usually defer to one if it has a Best Picture nomination, but both movies do. The real deciding factor is how much you think all the “other stuff” affected voters. There’s also the fact that I’m Still Here is a good movie and Emilia Pérez is awful.
Will win: I’m Still Here
Should win: I’m Still Here
Could win: Emilia Pérez
Betting: Again, bet your winner pick.
My bet: I’m Still Here -165
Nosferatu won for Cinematography at the Critics’ Choice. And while there’s no voter overlap, the CC winner has strong correlation with the Oscars. The award has only been given out since 2009, and 11/15 CC winners have gone on to win the Oscar. The Brutalist has the BAFTA win, and probably more importantly, the Best Picture nomination. Maria won at the ASC, but I think that means nothing to its chances; it’s not winning. If anything, I’d say it speaks to The Brutalist being a relatively soft favorite.
Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: The Brutalist
Could win: Nosferatu
Betting: Probably skip, but if you’re looking for spots where an upset could happen and not have it be a total surprise, this is one of them.
My bet: Nosferatu +300
Wicked, Conclave, and Nosferatu each won their respective CDG categories this year. But when they went head to head at BAFTA and Critics’ Choice, Wicked came out on top. But don’t let that fool you. This is locked for Wicked.
Will win: Wicked
Should win: Wicked
Could win: Don’t see a realistic path for anyone to beat Wicked
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
If you think Conclave is winning Best Picture, you have to predict it here. And that’s what I’m doing with Anora, just matching my Best Picture winner. Conclave could win Editing and lose Picture, but I can’t see it losing Editing but still winning Picture.
And the precursors aren’t much help here. Conclave won the BAFTA, but Challengers won at Critics’ Choice. And the Ace Eddie Awards aren’t announced this year until after the Oscars. And that’s been the most predictive win correlation. Only 7/15 Critics’ Choice winners also won the Oscar, with 13/30 BAFTA winners. But 21/30 ACE winners won the Oscar.
Will win: Anora
Should win: The Brutalist
Could win: Conclave
Betting: Bet your winner pick. But with a category as seemingly open as this, could there be an opportunity for an underdog win? Maybe even throw a long-shot on Wicked. Wicked is one of my “what the heck” long-shot bets.
My bet: Wicked +2000
If Demi Moore is winning Lead Actress, I think The Substance also takes home this award. If Moore is going to lose Actress, The Substance is still the favorite, but it opens things up a bit more. If not The Substance, the next logical choice would be Wicked, just as the odds show.
Will win: The Substance
Should win: Nosferatu
Could win: Wicked
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Conclave and Nosferatu each won an ADG award, as did Wicked. But in direct competition, Wicked won both BAFTA and Critics’ Choice. The Brutalist, surprisingly, doesn’t have any major precursor wins. Seems to be Wicked’s to lose, but if Conclave is winning Picture, it might have a fighting chance here.
Will win: Wicked
Should win: The Brutalist
Could win: Conclave
Betting: Skip, unless you want to bet this as part of Conclave’s Best Picture win package.
My bet: Conclave +900
The not-nominated score from Challengers (absolute joke by the Academy, by the way) winning both the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice throws a bit of wrench into this one. The Brutalist prevailed at BAFTA, which has matched up with the Oscar winner 5 years in a row, and 9/10.
But once again, consider a potential Best Picture win package for Conclave. Not that it can’t win Best Picture with only Adapted Screenplay and Editing. But in the scenario where it wins Picture, it very well could pull off an upset or two in some below-the-lines categories.
Will win: The Brutalist
Should win: The Brutalist
Could win: Conclave
Betting: Skip or Conclave
My bet: Conclave +700
What an absolutely uninspiring set of nominees.
Will win: El Mal
Should win: The Journey, because screw it, let’s give Diane Warren her Oscar.
Could win: Nope. The Emilia Pérez backlash and controversies tanked its chances in other categories, but I just can’t see this one being affected.
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
Since merging Sound Editing and Sound Mixing into a single category, 3/4 winners also won the Cinema Audio Society award. The only year they did not match was last year, where The Zone of Interest was not nominated at CAS. The Sound winner has also matched with BAFTA 3/4 years.
A Complete Unknown wasn’t nominated at BAFTA. The four winners all at least had that precursor. And prior to the merging, 23/30 Sound Editing winners had a BAFTA nomination, and 28/30 Sound Mixing winners had it. We’re still learning how the precursors explain and predict the single Sound category, but it maybe isn’t the best sign for A Complete Unknown.
This year, Dune won BAFTA, and A Complete Unknown won CAS. Dune also won the MPSE for Effects-Foley, which is typically the category to watch. But still, A Complete Unknown overperformed on nomination morning. If you think that could translate to a win on Sunday, why not here?
Will win: Dune: Part Two
Should win: Dune: Part Two
Could win: Wicked, A Complete Unknown
Betting: Dune: Part Two, but given the general lack of passion behind it, you could throw a bet at either Wicked or A Complete Unknown
My bet: A Complete Unknown +700
Will win: Dune: Part Two
Should win: Dune: Part Two
Could win: This is a lock
Betting: Skip
My bet: None
And there we have it. Only a few more days, and another Oscar season in the books. Let’s end it in the black!
