It’s Oscars time, baby! The Super Bowl of movie awards. Possibly the wackiest award season ever is finally coming to a close on Sunday night. And after all the delays and the Zoom awards shows and the (honestly dumb and unnecessary) extended awards eligibility window, it’s time to preview one of my favorite nights of the year!
I’ll also have a betting recommendation for each category. Betting on the Oscars is always tricky. Lots of favorites often have prohibitive odds, giving them no value. The key is to find the favorites worth betting on and the categories that are more ripe for an upset. It’s far from a science and is extremely hit or miss. Any odds referenced here come from Bovada and are current as of Wednesday, April 21st.
Best Picture
Will win: Nomadland
Could win: Trial of the Chicago 7 has the necessary nominations and a couple major precursor wins. And as always, the preferential voting used for Best Picture allows for the possibility of an upset (or at least gives the illusion of the possibility). Minari and Promising Young Woman aren’t completely out of it yet.
Should win: Promising Young Woman was my top movie for 2020, and I’m quite disappointed it seems like it’s going to come up short.
Betting: Don’t bother betting on Nomadland at its current odds. TOTC7 makes an okay bet, but it would be hard to recommend action on any other movie here. Maybe Minari, if you’re looking for a long shot win.
Best Director
Will win: Chloé Zhao
Could win: Nobody. This is Zhao’s award.
Should win: Honestly, take your pick. Personally, Fennell and Vinterberg are probably very close at the top. But there are no bad choices here.
Betting: Avoid
Lead Actress
Will win: I’m still sticking with my gut and saying Mulligan, but this is shaping up as one of the least predictable categories.
Could win: Kirby is the only one that would come as a true surprise.
Should win: Mulligan
Betting: Everyone outside of Kirby has decent enough odds to throw some money towards. Mulligan’s still the favorite, though she’s at positive odds, indicating she’s not one of the stronger frontrunners.
Lead Actor
Will win: Boseman
Could win: Maybe Hopkins? But any result other than a Boseman win would be pretty surprising.
Should win: Boseman
Betting: Probably avoid, but you could find a way to talk yourself into a Hopkins bet.
Supporting Actress
Will win: Youn
Could win: Don’t count out Bakalova. And until she finally wins, there’s always the chance of the voters giving Close the “prominent actor who hasn’t won wins because they should have by now” Oscar.
Should win: Youn
Betting: I jumped on Youn when she was at +190, but she’s not worth a bet at her current odds. Bakalova at +400 isn’t a terrible bet, but I wouldn’t risk too much there. And the Glenn Close “career achievement makeup” Oscar possibility is still out there. Her +900 odds aren’t awful in a vacuum, but it doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, especially with the run Youn’s been on.
Supporting Actor
Will win: Kaluuya
Could win: Nope
Should win: Kaluuya
Betting: Avoid
Original Screenplay
Will win: Promising Young Woman
Could win: Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: Promising Young Woman
Betting: Avoid or Trial of the Chicago 7. I got Promising Young Woman early, when it was at +150, but it’s now at -400. Not worth it at this point.
Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Nomadland
Could win: The Father
Should win: The Father
Betting: The Father is gaining some steam. I locked in a bet for it at +475, and it now sits at +275. Nomadland at -275 is a somewhat reasonable bet if you’re looking for favorites to bet on.
Animated Feature
Will win: Soul. Going with the Disney/Pixar choice might seem like the boring choice, but that doesn’t make it the wrong choice.
Could win: Don’t count on it
Should win: Soul
Betting: Avoid
Cinematography
Will win: Nomadland
Could win: Mank
Should win: Nomadland
Betting: Avoid or Mank
Costume Design
Will win: Ma Rainey
Could win: Emma., Mank
Should win: Emma.
Betting: Emma. has the “most” costumes and Mank is a movie about a movie, so it wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see either win. Ma Rainey is feeling like a strong favorite, but there are worse bets to back than either Emma. or Mank.
Film Editing
Will win: Trial of the Chicago 7
Could win: Sound of Metal
Should win: The Father
Betting: Trial and Sound are running neck and neck. Take your pick between the two, or avoid if you can’t decide. I usually try to find one or two “What the hell, let’s back a super long shot” bets to make and I took The Father here, but its odds are +2800 for a reason.
International Feature
Will win: Another Round
Could win: Another Round seems like a lock
Should win: Another Round is awesome. Mads Mikkelsen is absolutely dynamite and this movie has my favorite ending scenes of any movie last year and one of my favorite ending scenes of recent memory.
Betting: Avoid
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Ma Rainey
Could win: Don’t really see any other movie coming out on top here.
Should win: Emma.
Betting: Probably one to stay away from
Original Score
Will win: Soul
Could win: Mank
Should win: Soul, but there all nominees would be worthy winners
Betting: Avoid
Original Song
Will win: Husavik
Could win: Io Si, Speak Now
Should win: Husavik
Betting: Speak Now, Io SI, Speak Now.
Production Design
Will win: Mank
Could win: Mank seems to be the clear favorite among pundits, with Ma Rainey and Tenet running in 2nd and 3rd one way or the other.
Should win: Tenet
Betting: As of this writing, Bovada did not have open bets for this category. It’s looking like Mank will be a heavy favorite, but be sure to check before the ceremony starts on Sunday to see if any odds are up.
Sound
Will win: Sound of Metal
Could win: If Sound of Metal doesn’t win, we riot
Should win: Sound of Metal
Betting: Avoid
Visual Effects
Will win: Tenet
Could win: The Midnight Sky
Should win: Tenet
Betting: Tenet’s odds are a bit prohibitive. Midnight Sky is the one to back if you want action here.
