Well folks, Oscar Night is nearly upon us, the Super Bowl of the film industry! Even after 2019 gave us a great year in film, the Oscars could be shaping up to be a pretty chalky night. Lots of the favorites are heavy favorites. Upsets will happen, as they always do. But most of the big awards – at least the four acting categories – feel very locked in. Could make for a disappointingly anti-climactic event.
But nevertheless, it’s time to make Oscar predictions. Aside from the three shorts, I’ve got every category covered. These are straight winner predictions.
Best Picture
Will Win: Parasite. That’s right, I’m predicting an upset at the top. As well-liked and highly-regarded as 1917 is, there is a passion and excitement surrounding Parasite that you just don’t see very often. I know 1917 won a lot of the bigger pre-Oscar awards, but I can’t shake the feeling that Parasite still has enough momentum to carry it to a historical win.
Should Win: Parasite. Best movie of the year. Best movie of the decade (at least). Easy choice for me.
Could Win: Given the preferential voting system used for Best Picture, the “could win” tier is often quite large. 1917 is the current favorite, and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit, Joker all stand a chance.
Best Director
Will Win: Sam Mendes. What he was able to pull off with the one-take look is a technical masterpiece.
Should Win: Bong Joon-Ho
Could Win: Bong Joon-Ho. Sure, it’s possible the Academy decides to award Tarantino his long-awaited Director Oscar, but this has been a two-horse race for a while now. And the betting odds on Mendes shifted dramatically. He was at -1400 on Wednesday, and that moved to -550 on Thursday. Bong’s odds moved from +550 to +285. Something worth keeping an eye on.
Lead Actress
Will Win: Renée Zellweger
Should Win: Toss up between Scarlett Johansson and Saoirse Ronan. But if you want to twist my arm, I’d say Johansson.
Could Win: An upset here would be pretty shocking (going to be a common theme among the acting categories), but Johansson is running in second place, if you’r eyeing an upset. But all signs point to Zellweger here.
Lead Actor
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Should Win: Antonio Banderas. I had Driver in the top spot for the longest time. But it’s Banderas’ performance that has stuck with me. It’s so quiet and nuanced, he was nothing short of perfect in this role. It’s a shame his first nomination came in a year with such a strong favorite.
Could Win: Nobody. Phoenix has had this locked up for months now.
Supporting Actress
Will Win: Laura Dern
Should Win: Florence Pugh. Her performance as Amy March was one of my favorites on the entire year. This nomination feels more like a “Welcome to the club” type, but Pugh’s time will come. Fingers crossed for an upset here, but this is Dern’s to lose.
Could Win: This category also presents as a lock, but maybe Pugh’s rapid ascent gets her some love. I wouldn’t count on it, though. Johansson has been getting some good buzz recently. But it might be is too little too late.
Supporting Actor
Will Win: Brad Pitt
Should Win: Brad Pitt. Everyone here is great and deserving. But Pitt stands above the rest.
Could Win: Nobody else stands a chance.
Original Screenplay
Will Win: Parasite
Should Win: Knives Out. One of the most fun and creative movies from last year, Rian Johnson had a whip smart script. And with no other nominations, it would be nice to see it rewarded in the one category it has recognition. But honestly, I’d be happy to see any one of four of these (sorry, 1917) win.
Could Win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood. This has been a two-way competition once the pre-cursor awards started. It’s hard to envision any movie other than Parasite or Hollywood winning.
Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Jojo Rabbit
Should Win: Jojo Rabbit. A toss up between this and Little Women. But nobody’s brain works like Taika Waititi’s, and Jojo exemplifies that perfectly.
Could Win: Little Women. Greta Gerwig’s script is fantastic, no doubt. A win here would be more than deserved.
Animated Feature
Will Win: Missing Link
Should Win: I have Toy Story 4 ranked the highest of all the nominees, so I’d have to say that. But I’d like to see Missing Link win, see another studio get some love.
Could Win: Toy Story 4, Klaus. This has become one of the more interesting races to watch. In what is usually a straightforward, easy-to-predict category, Animated Feature just might be the most unpredictable one yet.
Cinematography
Will Win: 1917
Should Win: 1917
Could Win: This is Deakins’. Nobody else comes close here.
Costume Design
Will Win: Little Women
Should Win: Little Women
Could Win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Jojo Rabbit
Also read: 2019 Movies In Review
Documentary Feature
Will Win: For Sama. It seemed to trail American Factory all awards season. Clarity eluded us as Apollo 11 (not nominated) picked up some important pre-cursor awards. But For Sama’s win at the BAFTAs should push it into the lead position.
Should Win: I did not see any of these, so I can’t say.
Could Win: American Factory
Film Editing
Will Win: Parasite
Should Win: Ford v. Ferrari. Those driving scenes were incredible and exhilarating. It deserves the recognition.
Could Win: Anyone but Joker. This feels like one of the tighter races.
International Feature
Will Win: Parasite
Should Win: Parasite
Could Win: Any other movie winning here would be the shock of the night.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: Bombshell
Should Win: Bombshell. Charlize Theron was Megyn Kelly. An unreal transformation.
Could Win: Joker. This would be a win solely on the shoulders of Joaquin in clown makeup. But that might be enough.
Original Score
Will Win: 1917. Thomas Newman is 0-14 on Oscar nominations (0-15 when you factor in his one Original Song nomination). I’m calling the upset and saying the Academy corrects the errors of the past and awards Newman his long-awaited and much-deserved first Oscar.
Should Win: 1917
Could Win: Joker
Original Song
Will Win: “Stand Up”
Should Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again.” This is an absolute bop, but “Stand Up” just feels more like an Oscar song.
Could Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again”
Production Design
Will Win: Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
Should Win: Parasite
Could Win: Parasite, Jojo Rabbit. The two homes in Parasite are nothing short of incredible. If Jojo Rabbit does come out of the dark as the Best Picture winner, a Production Design win could very well precede that.
Sound Editing
Will Win: 1917
Should Win: Ford v. Ferrari. In terms of the sound, 1917 felt like just another war movie. It was very well done, like the entire movie, but this aspect didn’t stick out like the rest of it did. The sound in Ford v. Ferrari really helped draw you into the movie and the racing scenes in particular.
Could Win: Ford v. Ferrari
Sound Mixing
Will Win: 1917
Should Win: Ford v. Ferrari. *Copy and paste from Sound Editing*
Could Win: Ford v. Ferrari
Visual Effects
Will Win: The Irishman
Should Win: Avengers: Endgame. Forget everything Marty Scorsese said. The MCU has had a massive effect on the film industry, and I’d argue it’s nearly entirely for the better. Endgame marks the culmination of a truly iconic series of movies. This is Marvel’s only nomination; reward it.
Could Win: Everything except Star Wars.
